World Cup 2018: Top Goalscorer Betting Tips

With the World Cup Finals 2018 now less than a month away, it’s time to start looking in more detail at the different betting markets available. One of the most popular markets with punters is the Top Goalscorer market, with plenty of people opting for longer odds outside bets. In this article, I will be taking a look at the favourites for the award and analysing whether I think they will win and also be giving you some tips for dark horse players.

Arguably the greatest ever player, Lionel Messi, is rated as the favourite to win the award by Coral at odds 9/1. The Argentinian ace has scored 552 goals for Barcelona as well as 61 for his country and with this probably being his last World Cup at his peak he will be wanting to make a big impact. Messi has been criticised for never really being at his best for his country and never recreating the impact that Diego Maradona had when winning the World Cup for Argentina in 1986.

Argentina have been drawn with Iceland, Croatia and Nigeria in the group stage and whilst they should get through their group, I don’t see them having enough to win the competition. They look short of quality in defence and with first choice goalkeeper Sergio Romero missing the tournament, I think they may struggle. Messi certainly wouldn’t be my choice in terms of a bet and when you look at his group stage opponents, there isn’t one side where you’d back Argentina to win heavily.

There is a group of three players behind Messi available at 12/1 and they are; Cristiano Ronaldo, Antoine Griezmann and Neymar. Like Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo may well be let down by his teammates, but if Portugal can repeat their heroics of EURO 2016, then you never know. Ronaldo may now be 33, but he has enjoyed a staggering second half of the season and will be coming into the World Cup in fantastic form. This will probably be Ronaldo’s last World Cup and he will be desperate to leave with a bang, but I just don’t see him topping the scoring charts either. Portugal have Spain in their group and I’m expecting them to finish as runners up to their neighbours.

The men grouped with him at 12/1 look like much better bets to me. Antoine Griezmann was the top scorer at EURO 2016 and he has finished the season with Atletico Madrid in fine form. France have one of the best squads in the tournament and I fancy them to reach at least the semi-final stage. When you look at their group; Australia, Peru and Denmark, then you would expect there to be goals for Griezmann there. If he can grab himself two goals against Australia, then he will fancy his chances of winning the award. In terms of the main men, Griezmann looks like an excellent bet to me.

Along with Griezmann is Neymar from Brazil. The most expensive player in the world faces a race against time to be fit for the World Cup and it remains to be seen what sort of condition he will be in, having not played any competitive football for months. I fancy Brazil to win the World Cup though and if Neymar is fit, then you would expect him to have a massive say in that. I just cannot back a player who has played so little football this year though and with Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino in excellent form, Brazil may use Neymar sparingly.

Two other teams who are expected to do well are Spain and Germany, but with neither side boasting a true, top level centre forward, it is hard to back one of their players. Spain may well play Isco in a false nine role in the big games and with Germany likely to rotate between Thomas Muller and Timo Werner, it is very tough to back a player from either of those sides.

In terms of players at slightly longer odds, there has been plenty of talk of Mohamed Salah who has enjoyed a superb season in the Premier League, scoring 32 goals. Salah is available at 40/1, but you have to ask yourself, how far can Egypt really go in the competition? They certainly have a chance of making it out of the group, but in reality Salah would have to score a hat trick against Saudi Arabia to really stand a chance of being the top scorer. Egypt weren’t prolific scorers in qualifying and I just can’t see them doing enough to create chances for Salah.

If I had to back a longer odds bet for the award, I think you could do a lot worse than either Radamel Falcao or Leroy Sane. Both men are available at odds of 50/1 and could well be worth a look. Falcao has enjoyed another excellent campaign for Monaco, scoring 24 goals in 35 games, as well as grabbing four in his last six games for Colombia. He will also fancy his chances of scoring goals against Japan, Senegal and Poland in the group stage and if he can get enough goals there, he could well win the award. Leroy Sane has also enjoyed a superb campaign with Manchester City, scoring 14 times and although the youngster has yet to score a goal for Germany, he is expected to make a big impact at this tournament.

Antoine Griezmann – 12/1 (Coral)
Radamel Falcao – 50/1 (Coral)

Betting tip: Top Goalscorer – Griezmann & Falcao 12/1 & 50/1 (at Coral) Bet Now