Title challengers Real Madrid look to keep the pressure on La Liga leaders Barcelona as they welcome mid-table Valencia to the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.
Real Madrid vs Valencia
Spanish La Liga – Saturday 29th April 2017 – 3:15pm
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Draw Best Odd of: 8/1 at Ladbrokes |
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Real Madrid
ValenciaReal Madrid Recent Form
Defeat to Barcelona last week, their only league defeat at home this term, ended a run of nine games unbeaten and saw them slip off the top of the table.
They bounced back with a convincing 6-2 win away at Deportivo in midweek, leaving them in second place on goal difference with a game in hand.
Six wins, one draw and one defeat from their last eight league games puts them top of the form table. They also have the extremely good record of scoring in every single league game this season.
This will be their 18th home match in the league this season, with the recent defeat to Barcelona the only loss from the previous seventeen. They have won twelve and drawn four as the hosts.
Despite having the advantage of playing one less game than the leaders so far, they know they must keep winning to keep their title aspirations alive.
Valencia Recent Form
Currently in 12th place, Valencia are looking at another mid-table finish this season.
They have lost their last two games and are without a win in three. Their last eight games have seen them pick up three wins, two draws, and three losses.
With the possibility of a top half finish, as well as the prospect of doing the league double over Real Madrid, the Valencia players should be fired up for this game.
Head to Head Record
The most recent meeting between these sides came in February, when Valencia won 2-1 to make them just one of three teams to beat Real Madrid this season.
Valencia have beaten Real just twice in the last seventeen competitive meetings, although both of those victories have come in the past two years. It gives them the slight recent edge over their opponents, as Real have won just once in the last six meetings. The other three games, of the last six, have ended in 2-2 draws.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Real Madrid are 1/6 favourites for this at Ladbrokes, due to their high league position, recent form and importance of this fixture to their title challenge. Valencia are a big-priced 12/1, whilst the draw is 8/1.
With three draws in the last six meetings, as well as Valencia already holding a victory over Real this season, 8/1 for the draw could prove to be fantastic value.
Those three previous draws have all finished 2-2, so superstitious punters may opt to have a wager on this game finishing with the same score. It’s priced at 20/1 at Ladbrokes, which could be great value if history repeats itself.
However, despite the recent head to head record and Valencia’s victory a couple of months back, it’s hard to predict anything other than a Real Madrid win here. The importance of the fixture for them is far greater than it is for their opponents, and their form is far superior.
Backing Real to win doesn’t provide much value, so looking elsewhere for that value could pay dividends.
We have looked at the Half Time/Full Time market in search of extra value.
Real have led at half time seventeen times this season, whilst Valencia have trailed at the break in eleven games. So, Real to be leading at half time and winning the game is a better bet than just backing them to win. It provides greater value, even if it’s still a short price, at 1/2.
Even greater value is to be found in backing the draw at half time, with Real then winning at full time. Both sides have been level at the break in fourteen matches this season and it’s 7/2 to back Draw/Real Madrid here.
There should be plenty of goal action in this match, as 82% of Real’s games and 68% of Valencia’s this season have had over 2.5 goals. Also, Real haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five league games, whilst Valencia have only kept one in their last five.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/7, whilst over 3.5 is 4/11. Both teams to score is 1/2 and backing a combination of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals is 4/7.
Cristiano Ronaldo has netted three times in the last two meetings between these sides and is priced at 2/9 to score anytime in this game.
However, the Portuguese star has failed to score in the last seven league games and it will probably be better to look at alternative options.
James Rodriguez has scored three in the last two games and is priced at 2/5 in the anytime scorer market, whilst Alvaro Morata is the same price as Ronaldo but is in better form having netted five in five.
An outside bet, which provides good value, is Valencia to score first and Real to comeback for the victory. They have fallen behind twice in their last three and it’s priced at 7/1 for the home side to win coming from behind.
Top Betting Tip
Our top tip is Real Madrid Half Time/Full Time, priced at 1/2 with Ladbrokes.