The conference championships kicks off with the New England Patriots taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday night. New England is searching for back-to-back Super Bowl victories and beating the Jaguars will take them one step closer, whereas the Jaguars have out-performed their pre-season expectations. This wasn’t what most bettors thought would be the AFC Championship game as many predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would account for the Jaguars, but they’re here and they deserve their chance to cause the upset. Expectations are high for the Patriots, led by Tom Brady, and we should be expecting another high-scoring offensive feast on Sunday.
New England Patriots form
The New England Patriots have rattled off four consecutive wins since suffering a surprise loss to the Miami Dolphins in November. It has been classic Patriots success with wins coming over the Steelers, Bills, Jets and last week against the Titans. There were troubling signs early against the Titans, which scored first to lead 7-0, but there was no reason to panic and Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski dismantled the Titans defence in the last three quarters.
Defence has played a big part in the Patriots’ success towards the end of the season. They don’t get much credit, largely due to the amazing offence, but they have allowed totals of only 14, 6 and 16 points over their last three games. Playing at home where they lost only two games this season is going to help the Patriots and they shouldn’t have much trouble putting up a big number against this Jaguars defence, which gave up 42 points last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars form
The Jaguars created a huge upset when beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 45-42 in a dramatic finish last week. Using a good mix of pass and run offence, the Jaguars were able to hold the lead from the outset and cause one of the biggest upsets of the season. The success of the Jaguars didn’t happen by accident and this has been a process which has been well-managed by the coaching staff. Quarterback Blake Bortles has been stellar with 21 touchdowns this season and although he’s had 13 intercepts, many of those came early in the season.
Rookie running back Leonard Fournette was involved in a minor car crash this week, but he’s ready to go and bettors should expect Fournette to be heavily used this Sunday. The former LSU star could take advantage of some suspect Patriots run defence and if they stick to their plan, this could help open up the passing game for Bortles. Jacksonville has been a little inconsistent this season and consecutive losses to the 49ers and Titans were not a good look for their resume, but this is do-or-die and we’re expecting a much more polished performance.
Betting statistics
There are positives and negatives on the betting front for both teams coming into the all-important AFC Championship game.
For the Jaguars, a win could depend on how well Blake Bortles plays and the statistics back that up.
- Jaguars are 4-0 ATS (against the spread) in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
It’s not hard to find statistics in favour of the Patriots, but it’s clear that they have a distinct advantage come the playoffs.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
Betting Tip New England Patriots v Jacksonville Jaguars
Bookmakers currently have the New England Patriots as the 10/33 favourite and the Jaguars at 53/20, but there’s no value in that line for either team. We suggest taking the –7 (10/11 at Ladbrokes) for the Patriots as they should simply have too much firepower and experience for the Jaguars to keep up with. This game could be close in the first half if the Jaguars don’t turn the ball over, but Tom Brady never panics and he should be able to lead his team down the field on many occasions. One touchdown isn’t tough for the Patriots to cover and keep bettors happy.