Dortmund look to hold on to a top three position in the Bundesliga but face a tough final game of the season as they host Werder Bremen, who themselves are battling for Europa League qualification.
Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Bundesliga – Saturday 20th May 2017 – 2:30pm
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Draw Best Odd of: 13/2 at Ladbrokes |
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Dortmund
Werder BremenDortmund Recent Form
Dortmund are unbeaten in their last five but have drawn two of the last three, including stuttering to a 1-1 draw away at struggling Augsburg last weekend.
They come into this match three points clear of Hoffenheim in fourth and with a superior goal difference. A draw is enough to secure third place but a defeat, paired with Hoffenheim winning by at least four goals, could see them slip to fourth.
Despite their inconsistency recently, Dortmund are still a top team and are unbeaten at home in the league this season. They have twelve wins and four draws from their sixteen games, with 37 goals scored and only nine conceded as the hosts.
At least a draw in this match will see them secure Champions League football next season and remain unbeaten at home for the entire campaign.
Werder Bremen Recent Form
Bremen were the form team in the Bundesliga up until a couple of weeks ago. They were on a run of eleven games unbeaten and looked almost certain of clinching a top six finish.
However, the month of May hasn’t been kind to them and they have suffered back-to-back defeats. They have also conceded nine goals in those two defeats.
After a 5-3 drubbing at home to Hoffenheim last weekend, in which they were 5-0 down just seven minutes into the second half, Bremen now sit three points off the top six.
To secure a place in Europe next season, they need to win here and hope that Freiburg lose to Bayern Munich as well as FC Koln failing to win at home to FSV Mainz. It’s a tall order, but they will come into this match knowing exactly what they need to do.
They also have decent form away from home. They have suffered just one defeat in the last seven on their travels, and have scored fourteen goals in their last four away games.
Head to Head Record
Overall, these two sides are quite evenly matched with regards their head to head record. Of 98 meetings since 1963, Dortmund have won 42, Bremen 40, and 16 have been draws.
However, Dortmund have the edge in recent meetings. They have won the last four, and ten of the last eleven.
Bremen’s last victory was in December 2014, with their last away win at Dortmund coming in a German Cup tie back in January 2009.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Dortmund are the clear betting favourites in this match, with Betway pricing them at 2/9. They have Bremen priced at 9/1, while the draw is a tempting 13/2.
With the importance of this game for both sides, as well as recent goal scoring history, there should be plenty of goal action in this match.
Dortmund average 2.31 goals scored per home game in the league this season and with Bremen conceding nine in their last two games, the home side will fancy their chances of finding the net at least a couple of times here.
With that said, Bremen will be confident of scoring goals as well. Although Dortmund have a solid defensive record at home, the visitors have found the net fourteen times in their last four away games. In fact, Bremen have failed to score away from home in the league just once this season and that was on the opening day at Bayern Munich.
Also, looking at the head to head, both teams have scored in the last six meetings with a total of 26 goals scored during those games. That’s an average of over four goals per match.
Therefore, Both Teams to Score (priced at 1/2) and Over 2.5 Goals (at 2/11) both look to be bankers. If you think there will be more than three goals, you can back Over 3.5 at 9/20 and Over 4.5 at 1/1.
Dortmund to win and BTTS is priced at 19/20, while the home team to win and Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/11.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has netted in four of Dortmund’s last five games and is priced at 1/4 to score any time in this match.
Aubameyang to score any time and Dortmund to win is also available at odds of 30/100 with Betway.
The player favoured to score any time for the away side is Max Kruse at 11/5, but there could be great value in backing Theodor Gebre Sellasie. The 30-year-old defender has found the net in the last two games, so could be worth a punt in the anytime goalscorer market at odds of 6/1.
Top Betting Tip
Our top betting tip for this match is Aubameyang to score any time and Dortmund to win, priced at 30/100 at Betway.
We also believe you would be foolish not to back Both Teams to Score, at decent looking odds of 1/2.