The Clarence House Chase (Saturday 20 January) is a Grade 1 Chase run at Ascot over a distance of 2 Miles and 167 Yards. It was first run in 1989, when the brilliant Desert Orchid got to write his name on a role of honour that is also graced by the likes of Viking Flagship, Martha’s Son, Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy. This year, Un De Sceaux is being targeted at an unprecedented hat-trick, having become only the second horse to win the race twice last year, the other being Master Minded.
10-Year-Trends
- 8-year-olds have won 6 of the last ten renewals, 7-years-olds two, and 6 and 9-year-olds one each
- Winners have been rated between 159 and 186
- Paul Nicholls has trained 3 of the last 9 winners
- Willie Mullins has trained the last 2 winners
- Sprinter Sacre at 1/5 was the shortest-priced winner
- Tamarinbleu at 12/1 was the longest-priced winner
- 7 of the last 9 favourites have won
Major Contenders
Un De Sceaux
Won 15 of his 18 completed races, second in the other three, and bids for an unprecedented hat-trick having won the race by 5-lengths in each of the last two-years. Will be without the services of Ruby Walsh this year, but not as headstrong as he once was. He’s also the clear pick on ratings, and will have no problem if the wet weather forecast turns the ground soft or even heavy.
Brain Power
Won a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle by 5-lengths off a mark of 146 when seen at Ascot last season, but didn’t looks top-class when down the field in both the Champion Hurdle and the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. Looked a natural chaser when winning comfortably on his chasing debut this season, but would have probably finished second to Sceau Royal at Sandown but for falling at the last. Has huge potential as a chaser, but softening ground would be a worry.
Kylemore Lough
Grade 1 winning Novice Chaser on heavy ground, but has failed so far to hit the heights in open company, or when carrying big-weights in decent handicaps. Officially has 13lb to find with Un De Sceaux, and his chances probably hinge on the favourite underperforming.
Top Gamble
Ran creditably to be fourth in a big-handicap at Cheltenham last time off top-weight, but was beaten 25-lengths by Un De Sceaux when receiving 8lb in his previous race. Has to race off level-weights here, but could still be good enough for the forecast if the ground is soft.
San Benedeto
Trained by Paul Nicholls, but disappointed over course and distance two starts ago when unable to win a handicap off 157, and was even more disappointing next time.
Cyrname
Another Paul Nicholls’ trained horse, and one that probably has improvement to come after winning a novice chase by 7-lengths last time. Possibly needs to find around 20lb to get competitive though.
Speredek
Handicapper who has won 5 of his last 6 starts, and keeps going from strength to strength. Trainer may not wish to waste his handicap mark by running him here though, as he’s another who must find at least 20lb of improvement to have a chance.
Summary
It should be Un De Sceaux first and the rest trailing in his wake and, though odds-on isn’t everyone’s kind of price, he’ll surely be a lot shorter on the day if turning-up, which he should as his trainer has stated for a while that this is his big target before the Cheltenham Festival.
Clarence House Chase Tip: Un De Sceaux