Round 32 of the 2022-23 Italian Serie A goes on over the weekend, so we are breaking down one of Saturday’s most exciting matches to get you the best AS Roma vs. AC Milan betting pick, tips, and odds.
AS Roma – AC Milan Betting Tip, Prediction & Odds (29.4.2023)
The battle for the Champions League qualification is heating up, and Saturday’s battle from Stadio Olimpico could be pivotal for both AS Roma and AC Milan. Neither club can afford to drop points, and the hosts will try to beat AC Milan for the first time since 2019.
AS Roma vs. AC Milan: Initial Situation
AS Roma wrapped up Round 31 on Monday night, and their match against Atalanta has been excluded from the analysis. The Yellow and Reds (W17, D5, L8; 42:26 goal difference) were tied with AC Milan (W16, D8, L7; 51:37 GD) for the fourth spot in Serie A, three points behind third-placed Juventus and two points ahead of fifth-placed Inter. Keep in mind that the top four teams will qualify for the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League. Napoli are topping Serie A, 17 points above Lazio.
AS Roma Stats & Form
The Yellow and Reds entered Monday’s clash against Atalanta aiming for their fourth straight Serie A victory. Over their previous three league games, AS Roma have defeated Sampdoria 3-0, Torino 1-0, and Udinese 3-0. Meanwhile, they’ve outlasted Feyenoord 4-2 on aggregate in the Europa League quarterfinal, beating the Pride of South 4-1 in extra time in the second leg at home. In their last nine home matches in all competitions, AS Roma have recorded eight wins, one loss, and a 19:5 goal difference.
Paulo Dybala has scored 11 goals in 22 Serie A appearances so far this season, while Tammy Abraham has bagged seven goals in 30 league matches. Last week, Abraham notched two assists in that 4-1 win over Feyenoord, and Dybala scored the second goal for AS Roma to force extra time.
AC Milan Stats & Form
The Red and Blacks are undefeated in four consecutive Serie A matches. After a 4-0 thrashing of Napoli and a couple of draws against Empoli 0-0 and Bologna 1-1, AC Milan beat Lecce 2-0 as 1.53 home favorites this past Sunday. Over their previous six games in all competitions, the Red and Blacks have registered three wins and three stalemates, eliminating Napoli 2-1 on aggregate in the Champions League quarterfinal in the process.
Still, AC Milan have only earned eight points in their last eight Serie A contests away from home (W2, D2, L4). The Red and Blacks are without Olivier Giroud (eight league goals this season), who’s recovering from an injury, so keep your eyes on Rafael Leao, who’s bagged 12 goals in 29 Serie A matches in 2022-23. Leao scored a brace against Lecce last Sunday.
AS Roma – AC Milan: Head-to-Head
AC Milan have posted four wins and two draws in their last six encounters with AS Roma, and five of those six games have seen both teams score. In their first duel of the season, AC Milan and AS Roma played a 2-2 draw at San Siro. The Yellow and Reds erased a two-goal deficit with Tammy Abraham tying the game in the dying moments of the second half.
AS Roma – AC Milan Odds
Unibet Sportsbook offers the best odds on a draw (3.25 at the time of writing) and the visiting team to win (3.05), while bet365 Sportsbook offers 2.50 on the hosts, who sit at 2.40 at Unibet. Frankly, there’s no easy money in this match. According to Unibet, Both Teams to Score YES/NO pays 1.89/1.87.
I like AS Roma’s chances to finally get one over AC Milan. The Red and Blacks have struggled on the road over the last few months, and Olivier Giroud’s injury is a huge blow for their offense. AS Roma, on the other side, have kept their net intact in seven of their previous eight league matches at home. I would like to take Under 2.5 Goals, but the odds are not attractive at 1.60, so give me AS Roma to win at 2.50 with Unibet.
Betting tip and prediction: AS Roma – AC Milan (29.4.2023)