Champions Bayern Munich look to keep up the pressure on league leaders Dortmund as they travel to struggling Hamburg for this Bundesliga clash. Hamburg looked in great form at the start of the season, winning their opening two games, but they have struggled ever since. They have lost five of their last six, picking up just one point in that time. After their two victories, they went on a run of five games without scoring a goal before netting twice in a 3-2 defeat at Mainz last weekend. That poor form leaves them in fifteenth position in the Bundesliga, just six points off the bottom. Recent League Form – LDLLLL.
German Bundesliga – Imtech Arena, Hamburg – Saturday 21st October – 14:30 UK Time
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Draw Best Odd of: 6 at Ladbrokes |
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Hamburg
FC BayernBayern Munich
Bayern have lost just one of their eight league matches this season but that is enough for them to be seen as under-performing. Five victories and two draws gives them seventeen points, leaving them two points behind Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga table. A 5-0 victory over Freiburg marked Jupp Heynckes first league match as manager, and also ended a run of two consecutive draws. Robert Lewandowski is once again in fantastic goal scoring form, with nine league goals to his name. He has netted in all but one of Bayern’s league games this season. Recent League Form – WDDWWL.
Head to Head
Bayern have won fifteen of their last eighteen meetings with Hamburg, with the other three finishing in a draw. Amazingly, Bayern have scored sixty-eight goals in those eighteen meetings. Hamburg have netted just seven during that time. They have won the last six meetings, scoring twenty-seven goals in the process. The most recent meeting was an 8-0 win for Bayern in February this year, with Robert Lewandowski netting a hat-trick in an extremely one-sided match.
Hamburg last picked up a victory over Bayern in September 2009. Overall, Bayern have sixty-six victories in 108 meetings since 1965. Hamburg have won twenty, and twenty-two have been draws.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Going on recent form and head to head statistics, there really is only one likely outcome to this match and the bookmakers agree. Bayern Munich are 1/6 favourites for the victory with bet 365. Hamburg are 18/1, and the draw is priced at 6/1. They have averaged just under four goals per game in the last eighteen meetings, and over four a match in their last six victories over Hamburg. Therefore, it’s highly likely they will score a few goals in this match.
Odds of 4/6 are available for Bayern to score Over 2.5 Goals, 13/8 for Over 3.5, and 4/1 for them to score Over 4.5. Although there’s the possibility of them going goal crazy here, we are going to stay sensible and suggest Bayern to score Over 2.5 Goals is the most likely outcome. Odds of 4/6 aren’t the worst and the potential for a decent profit is there. Obviously, if we think Bayern are going to score Over 2.5 Goals, it’s safe to assume the match itself will also have Over 2.5 Goals. This is available for odds of 4/11.
With Bayern being clear favourites, and with the potential to absolutely dominate this match, we think backing them in the Half Time/Full Time market would be a wise move. This provides better value than the match result market at odds of 1/2 and is a likely outcome.
The handicap market could be the best place to find a little more value, with Bayern priced at 11/10 for the win starting with a -2 handicap. Robert Lewandowski has scored in every match that Bayern have scored in this season, so it’s extremely likely he will find the net here. The Polish striker is priced at 1/3 to score anytime, 13/8 to score first, 13/10 to net two or more, and 4/1 to bag a hat-trick. We think 1/3 in the anytime market is fair and we are almost certain of this bet returning a profit. Lewandowski to score first and Bayern to win is priced at 2/1.
Top Betting Tip
Our top betting tip for this match is Robert Lewandowski to score anytime, priced at 1/3 with Bet 365.