New Orleans Pelicans – Washington Wizards Predictions & Odds
Game Details
- New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards
- NBA regular season
- Date: 11/15/2021
- Start time: 07:00 PM ET
- Capital One Arena, Washington
Both teams missing their best players on Monday
The 9-3 Washington Wizards will host the 2-12 New Orleans Pelicans on Monday evening. Both team’s injury reports are fairly clear for this game (besides long-term injuries to marginal players) with only Zion Williamson missing the game for New Orleans and Bradley Beal being unavailable for the Wizards due to personal reasons.
While both stars are worth multiple points to the spread, one injury is unlike the other with the Wizards having more than enough capable guards to fill Beal’s space, the Pelicans are relatively thin when it comes to big men behind Jonas Valanciunas.
We would expect Aaron Holiday to draw the start for the Wizards in Beal’s spot and Spencer Dinwiddie to shoulder most of the lead guard roles. We will also likely see a few Raul Neto minutes.
Underwhelming Pelicans
This season has been a catastrophe for New Orleans and that is putting it mildly. The Pels are 2-12 with a -10.3 adjusted point differential. All this, despite facing just the 20th most difficult schedule in the league. The Pels are holding a 1-6 road record heading into this matchup Monday night where they will face the Wizards who have a 5-1 record at home with the lone loss coming against Toronto.
If we look at the underlying metrics of New Orleans it is hard not to be concerned. The Pels are 29th in the league in points per possession allowed and 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed. New Orleans is also allowing the third-highest number of free throws to opposing teams. Simply put, this team is fouling way too much, which spells trouble as the Wizards are drawing the 7th most free throws in the league.
Matchup troubles for the road squad
The biggest cause for concern comes from the matchup. The Wizards are mostly shooting midrange jump shots when they are not attacking the rim. New Orleans is just 19th defensively against midrange jumpers and 27th defensively in the paint. This latter fact is especially worrisome as Washington’s offense is graded as the 2nd best in the paint with an average field goal percentage above 70%!
New Orleans is also turning the ball over more than almost any other team in the league. The Pelicans have a 16.4% turnover rate, which is the 4th-worst in the entire NBA. We also have to mention the terrible defense of New Orleans in half-court sets where they grade 29th in the league.
The only area where the Pelicans hold an edge is the rebounding. The already mentioned Valanciunas is a beast on the glass as the Pels are grading 6th best in offensive rebounding and 8th best in defensive rebounding.
New Orleans Pelicans – Washington Wizards Odds
Pick: Washington Wizards -2.5 -115 (1.87x) Bet365
We are going with the Washington Wizards on Monday and we are laying the points. This Pelicans’ offense grades 27th in half-court sets and is also one of the weakest transition offenses. We have a lot of faith in this Harrel & Dinwiddie-led Washington offense with Kuzma also playing a major part averaging 15p oints. The Wizards have a huge edge in the depth department and they should be winning their fifth straight game on Monday night improving their home record to 6-1.
Note: Our model makes this spread about 4.5-points, so we would bet the Wizards at -4 -110 (1.91x) or better.
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