Atlanta Hawks – Golden State Warriors Prediction & Odds
Game Details
- Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors
- NBA regular season
- Date: 08/11/2021
- Start time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco
Golden State rolling
The Golden State Warriors are looking like one of the top teams of the league in the early going. Steph Curry & Co. holds the highest adjusted points differential in the NBA at +12.3 with an 8-1 record to go with it.
While we traditionally think of Golden State as a high-powered offense, it is the defense that is getting the results for the Warriors. They are currently leading a lead in defensive rating only allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions. The second-best team in the league is allowing over 101 points, which is a huge difference in modern NBA.
Golden State has also been profitable for bettors outperforming their closing spreads by an average of 7.6 points so far. There is room for regression, but will it come here?
Low level of competition faced by the Warriors
The first thing that is throwing a wrench into Golden State’s results so far is the level of competition faced. Based on ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, the Warriors faced the 25th toughest schedule in the league so far.
If we look at the list of their opponents so far this season, you won’t find any top teams on the list. Golden State faced the:
- Lakers
- Clippers
- Kings
- Thunder (twice)
- Grizzlies
- Hornets
- Pelicans
- Rockets
The Warriors lost their game against the Grizzlies (probably the best team on the list), despite the Grizzlies coming off another game the night before. The rest of the teams on this list are either struggling (Lakers, Hornets), injured (Pelicans) or just not very good to start with (Clippers, Rockets, Hornets). We could probably say that the best team that the Warriors have beaten so far is the Sacramento Kings, a team that our model rates 0.41 points worse than league average.
Enter the Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are on the exact opposite side of the early season schedule spectrum. Atlanta faced the fourth-toughest schedule in the entire league dropping 6 of their 10 games so far this season. The Hawks faced championship contenders like the Brooklyn Nets, the Phoenix Suns, the Utah Jazz, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Having a -1.9 points differential against such a difficult schedule is a pretty admirable performance.
If we are looking at our pre-season priors, the Hawks should be at least as talented as the Warriors in their current form, still without Klay Thompson. The depth Atlanta has is almost unparalleled in the league, and it’s not something a top-heavy Golden State team can match, especially on tired legs.
Atlanta will also have a giant advantage when it comes to rebounding. Despite facing a grueling schedule, the Hawks grade 8th in offensive and 4th in defensive rebounding, and they have a size advantage over the Warriors in this matchup. It is also important to note that Golden State only grades 24th in offensive rebounding, which should limit the second chance opportunities the Warriors get.
Atlanta Hawks – Golden State Warriors Odds
Pick: Atlanta Hawks +3.5 -105 (1.95x) Bet365
We are going with the Atlanta Hawks with the points. The road team is fully healthy and rested, while Golden State is playing a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Atlanta is easily the most difficult test the Warriors have faced this season and we would expect the Hawks to easily stay within the number even if they cannot squeak out an outright victory!
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