April 14th sees the 2018 edition of the most famous horse race in the world: the Aintree Grand National. Unlike many other famous races, which tend to be Group or Grade 1 affairs, the Grand National is a handicap. Such is the profile of the National that the weights are announced well in advance of the race and do not alter no matter how a horse performs in the period between this announcement and the day of the race itself.
Every year though, several contenders do run in this period, and often run well enough to have their official handicap mark increased to a value greater than that attributed to them for the Grand National. Come the day of the race such runners will find themselves saddled with less weight than if the National weights were published in the standard manner, and can therefore be said to be “well-in” at the weights. A potential advantage at the weights always makes a runner worth a second look from a betting perspective. Let’s take a look at the six contenders who currently fit the bill this year.
Bellshill Age: 8 Trainer: Willie Mullins Odds: 20/1 with Ladbrokes
Irish Rating 158
Grand National Rating 148.
10lbs well in
Recent Run: Returning from a break of nearly a year in the 3m1f Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse this son of King’s Theatre travelled ominously well throughout before pulling clear of A Genie In Abottle for a near five length success.
Pro’s:
- Grade 1 bumper winner and twice a winner at the top level over hurdles, this one boasts plenty of class.
- Would be having just his sixth start over fences here, making him one of the least exposed runners in the field.
- Trainer has won this before.
Cons:
- Yet to race at beyond 3m1f.
- No experience of the National fences.
Anibale Fly Age: 8 Trainer: Tony Martin Odds: 16/1 with William Hill
Irish Rating 168
Grand National Rating 159
9lbs well in
Recent Run: An excellent third in the biggest one of them all, staying on really well up the straight to chase home Native River and Might Bite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Pro’s:
- That Gold Cup run is the single best piece of recent form on offer.
- Trainer adept at plundering big handicaps.
Cons:
- Gold Cup can sometimes leave a lasting mark on horses.
- No experience of the fences.
Regal Encore Age: 10 Trainer: Anthony Honeyball Odds: 33/1 with Coral
Official Rating 154
Grand National Rating 150
4lbs well in
Recent Run: Battling performance to land the Listed Keltbray Swinley Chase at Ascot.
Pro’s:
- Course and distance experience having ran on from a mile back to finish eighth last year.
Cons:
- Can be fragile. Has been pulled up in seven of 17 career starts over fences.
Shantou Flyer Age: 8 Trainer: Richard Hobson Odds: 50/1 with Ladbrokes
Official Rating 157
Grand National Rating 153
4lbs well in
Recent Run: An excellent second in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, making up ground all the way to the line in that three-mile contest run on heavy ground to go down by just a neck.
Pro’s:
- Versatile regarding the ground having won on good and soft/heavy.
Cons:
- Pulled up in last years edition, although being hampered at a crucial stage had at least something to do with that.
- Yet to complete in three attempts at further than 3m1f.
Rathvinden Age: 10 Trainer: Willie Mullins Odds: 33/1 with Coral
Irish Rating 154
Grand National Rating 150
4lbs well in.