As we approach the halfway point of the Premier League season, the race to finish in the Champions League places looks like it will go right to the wire. Below are the odds that Ladbrokes have given several teams for finishing in the top four. You would fancy that Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea are all going to finish in the top four, but behind them four teams are separated by just a single point as they battle it out for that fourth and final Champions League spot. In this article I will be taking a look at those teams involved in the race, and analysing who has the best chance of getting over the line.
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur currently occupy fourth place, but are level on points with Liverpool and Burnley below them. Mauricio Pochettino’s side have been slightly disappointing this season after finishing as runners up last time out and the move to Wembley Stadium has certainly slowed down their progress this year.
Why They Will Do It
In Harry Kane, they have the most natural goal scorer in the Premier League and the winner of the Golden Boot award for the past two seasons. If Kane is at his best, Spurs will have too much in attack to beat the majority of teams. They also have a solid defensive unit, who, when fit, are arguably the best in the league.
Why They Won’t
Injuries have been a problem for Spurs this season and they are really missing Toby Alderweireld and Victor Wanyama defensively. If Kane were to get injured it’s hard to see where the goals would come from for Spurs and with Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen struggling for form a little this season, they could miss out without their talisman.
Liverpool
Liverpool have been a little up and down this season and Jurgen Klopp will have been disappointed to have drawn back to back games against Everton and West Bromwich Albion. Klopp’s side dominated both of those games, but just didn’t do enough to win them. Liverpool are level on points with Spurs in fourth place and if you’d offered Klopp that at the start of the season, he would have bitten your hand off.
Why They Will Do It
The attack; Liverpool have one of most fearsome attacks in Europe in the shape of Mohamed Salah, Philipe Coutinho, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino. Salah is the top scorer in the league at the moment with 13 goals and on their day this front line can blow any team out of the water. If you add Adam Lallana into the mix when he returns from injury, Klopp has one of the best attacks in Europe right now
Why They Won’t
The defence; Liverpool’s defensive issues have been well publicised and if you look at their starting back five and compare it to the teams they are competing with in the top six, I doubt any of the Liverpool players would get into the other sides. A failed summer pursuit of Virgil van Dijk left Klopp with the same centre backs as last season and they are simply not good enough. Liverpool have conceded more goals than any other side in the top six and that is what will hold them back.
Burnley
Burnley have been the surprise package of the season and after finishing just six points outside the relegation zone last season, they are now level on points with Liverpool and Spurs in the Champions League places after 17 matches. Sean Dyche has done a superb job on a limited budget and has got his team playing well above their station.
Why They Will Do It
It’s tough to see Burnley maintaining this run, but if they do it will be because of their solid defence. Only Manchester United and Manchester City have conceded less goals than Burnley this season (12) and only Manchester United have kept more clean sheets. This team is built on a foundation of defensive organisation and right now it is working.
Why They Won’t
You feel like their luck has to run out at some point; they have won so many matches by a single goal this season and if that starts to flip then they simply don’t score enough goals if the defence starts to struggle. A return of just 16 goals this season is the lowest in the top half of the table and unless they can improve that, then you feel like they will fall away.
Arsenal
This season feels like a case of the same old problems for Arsenal; inconsistencies, players agitating for moves, defensive mistakes and some wonderful performances. Arsenal currently find themselves just a point outside the Champions League places and, like Liverpool, if you’d offered Arsene Wenger that at the start of the season he definitely would have taken it.
Why They Will Do It
In Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil and Alexandre Lacazette, they have genuine star quality in that front line. If Sanchez stays in January and starts to improve, then he can fire Arsenal to a top four finish. Arsenal have a big enough squad this season, it is simply a case of ironing out the defensive mistakes.
Why They Won’t
Like Liverpool, Arsenal concede too many sloppy goals. Defensive mistakes continue to hurt them and you can’t keep giving teams a goal head start. Arsenal have regularly started games slowly this season and have been the protagonists of their own downfall on a number of occasions. If Wenger can’t iron out the defensive mistakes, then I can see Arsenal finishing 6th.
Who Will Do It
I think it is a straight shoot-out between Liverpool and Spurs this season. If Liverpool can strengthen their defence in January, with someone like van Dijk, then I think they will do it. They have a better attack than Spurs and it is just their defence holding them back right now. On the flip side, if they don’t strengthen, then I don’t think they will do it. Spurs are a solid side and if everyone stays fit, then I can see them grinding out enough victories to get over the line. It will go right to the wire though and I’m sure there are plenty of neutrals out there who would love to see Burnley do it!